The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers is providing some insight into the effect the war in Ukraine is having on oil production and exportation.

CAPP research suggests that while they have seen loadings of Russian oil drop, they are among historical norms, and the data does not show definitively that the usage of Russian oil has dropped. However, they do expect loadings to fall for April and May as the data is for the month of March, with many of those deals in place before Russia’s invasion.

Jim Burkhard, an oil market researcher, says many countries outside the west such as India and China, aren’t saying no to Russian oil outright.

He says the price of Russian oil was comparable to the price of WTI before the invasion, but now is at a 30 percent discount, which is a very attractive deal for those willing to buy it.

Burkhard calls this the “partitioning of the global oil market”.

He says what came together in the 1990s is now being undone, however it does provide some opportunity for Canada to be a constructive player in the global energy market.