Threatened tariffs on Canadian goods bound for the United States will reorient 50 years of North American economic development, the effects of which won’t happen overnight, according to a history professor who has been studying the potential impacts.
Canadians are bracing for the imposition of punishing 25 per cent tariffs on exports to the U.S. by President Donald Trump as early as tomorrow, with indications from his administration that there are more to come.
Trump has threatened the measures, presumably to build up American jobs and industry.
Bruce Muirhead. (Courtesy University of Waterloo)
But Bruce Muirhead, a history professor at the University of Waterloo, believes it will take years, perhaps even decades, for Americans to see the economic benefits that could result from up-ending well-established North American trade networks.
“If Trump gets his way here, and if he’s serious about all this, it’s not possible to change the nature of the world’s global economic model overnight,” says Muirhead. “It will result in lots of medium-term and perhaps longer-term economic pain for Americans as well as for everybody else.”
Meanwhile, the president of the FFAW likens the threat of U.S. tariffs on their products to a “boogeyman” hanging over their heads.
According to the provincial government, between 60 and 80 per cent of all seafood produced in this province is exported to the United States.
FFAW boss Dwan Street says their members are “very concerned,” especially for what this could mean for collective bargaining.
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Street notes that they are currently in a “critical moment” of bargaining on prices for snow crab.
She says over 90 per cent of the province’s snow crab was exported to the U.S. last year, adding “that volume cannot be absorbed locally.”
Street expressed concern for what the tariffs could mean for consumer buying power in the United States.
She worries people will look for alternatives, which she says wouldn’t be good, especially given that markets were starting to rebound after a few challenging years.
As well, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers is cautioning Ottawa to take a careful approach to any retaliatory action against the United States.
CAPP says there has been a lot of information shared about how much Canadian oil and gas is sent to the United States, but little conversation on how much provinces like Quebec, Ontario, Alberta and B.C. rely heavily on U.S. imports.
That, says CAPP, leaves Canada vulnerable when it comes to energy security, should U.S. action lead to a trade war, which could trigger energy shortages and higher prices.
