A new poll from Narrative Research shows that the provincial Liberals held a “commanding lead” heading into the election call.

The poll was conducted over the span of three weeks in August, mere weeks before the writ was dropped.

The unusually long data collection period was due to the wildfires, with the company noting that the information is “reflective of broad public sentiment” during that time, rather than a prediction of election results.

According to the study, 66 per cent of respondents said they were satisfied with the Liberal government, up nine points from a year earlier. Twenty-six per cent indicated they were dissatisfied.

As for voting intentions during that time, 59 per cent of decided voters said they would support the Liberals, up from 43 per cent in August 2024. Thirty per cent would support the PCs, down from 35 per cent a year earlier, and nine per cent indicated support for the NDP – down from 19 per cent.

Narrative Research CEO Margaret Bigley says the Liberals hold a “significant lead” among decided voters, and Hogan is “more than twice as likely to be preferred as Premier over any other party leader.”

Methodology: These results are part of Narrative Research’s Atlantic Quarterly®, an independent, quarterly telephone survey of Atlantic Canadians, and are drawn from a sample of 350 adult residents of Newfoundland and Labrador. The survey was conducted August 7-29, 2025, with overall results accurate to within ±5.2 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times. Note, data collection dates were extended in response to wildfires in NL. The results are weighted by region, age and gender to reflect the overall Newfoundland and Labrador adult population.