Despite what industry calls “significant evidence” of seal predation being a leading cause of cod mortality, DFO still won’t bite – stating that research is ongoing.
DFO says they are researching the distribution, diet and abundance of seals in 3Ps. This year, natural mortality rates are approximately three times that of fishing mortality. In 2019, there was an annual reduction of approximately 40 per cent of the cod stock.
Biologist with DFO, Karen Dwyer says a lot of the time it is speculation when it comes to linking what’s happening in the environment and natural mortality. She says there are numerous factors, including a changing ecosystem, contributing to natural mortality.
Dwyer states that competition with other fish for prey, starvation, disease, survival of young fish if temperatures are too high, and predation could be happening.
If there was no fishing in the area whatsoever, DFO’s projections show just a 16 per cent improvement.
As for the concern of grey seals, Dwyer wouldn’t say much. She says they are looking into the possible factors affecting the cod stocks, and they would like to know as much as anyone else.
Meanwhile the Atlantic Groundfish Council says they accept that the cod stock in 3Ps has faced recent challenges, but question if the situation is as dire as DFO claims.
The Council says it’s rare for them to disagree with DFO science, and expressing disagreement is not done without serious concerns on the accuracy of the assessment and the significant impact it has on the industry, communities and international markets.
They say harvesters should not be expected to face additional anxieties that come with uncertainties created by sudden shifts in scientific interpretation of stock status.
DFO adopted a new, custom model using multiple sources of data that they say was determined to be the best approach for modeling 3Ps cod, and will be used going forward.
Meanwhile, the FFAW is calling on the federal government to immediately remove offshore trawlers from 3Ps, to re-evaluate the new assessment model and take action on seal predation.
President Keith Sullivan says natural mortality from seal predation is driving the trajectory of 3Ps cod, while draggers operating during critical pre-spawning periods threaten any chance of sustainability.
Sullivan says DFO has made it clear that natural mortality is driving the decline of the 3ps cod stock – being three times the amount of fishing mortality – yet, despite significant evidence of seal predation being a leading cause, it was not taken into account in the new assessment model.