The Atlantic basin is starting to wake up again following an unusual lull in tropical storm activity in August.
Hurricane Francine recently hit Louisiana, and there is another system in the tropics that could become Hurricane Gordon.
Chris Fogarty of the Canadian Hurricane Centre says unusual weather patterns in Africa are behind the recent lull because many Atlantic storm systems form off the west coast of Africa. Fogarty says as an example, the Sahara Desert is getting a lot of rain, which isn’t typical. Because of that unusual weather, a “key ingredient” for the formation of tropical storms has been missing.
That situation is now changing, and Fogarty would be surprised to see things stay quiet through the late summer and early fall.
While the precise number of storms, or their tracks can not be predicted, Fogarty says late season activity could make any storms that move into Atlantic Canada more powerful.
He says that’s because they can merge with other non-tropical systems, like cold fronts. As an example, he says Hurricane Fiona in 2022 merged with another system, which is what caused it to be so intense. If that merger didn’t happen, Fogarty says it would likely have still been a bad storm, but not as intense.