The economic outlook for the metropolitan area that encompasses the entire northeast Avalon including St. John’s, Mount Pearl, Paradise and CBS, shows that the local economy is forecast to grow as oil production increases.
Real GDP is projected to increase by 5.3 per cent in 2025 to $17.3 billion as the SeaRose FPSO resumes production.
Excluding the oil and gas sector, economic growth is expected to be significantly weaker at just 0.5 per cent.
Employment is expected to total 122,200 people in 2025, down 500 workers from the previous year. Employment will drop by 5 per cent with completion of the West White Rose construction project, offsetting employment gains from increased residential construction.
St. John’s Census Metropolitan Area (via Stats Can)
Population in the region is expected to grow by 0.4 per cent to reach 237,365 in 2025, and inflation is expected to fall from 2.2 per cent in 2024 to 1.8 per cent in 2025 thanks to the elimination of the carbon tax.
Housing starts are projected to total 1.058 units, up 21.5 per cent from the previous yet, driven largely by pent-up demand.
The big story is U.S. tariffs, the full impact of which is yet to be fully understood. About 5.800 jobs in the metro region are linked to the export of goods to the U.S. – most in the oil industry. The province’s seafood industry is heavily dependent on U.S. markets, however the oil industry has the ability to export to other markets and is well-positioned to adapt to trade barriers.
