The Canadian Hurricane Centre is predicting an average or below-average season this year.
While storms can form in the Atlantic basin year-round, the official hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
Between eight and 14 storms are expected to form this year – the yearly average is 14. Of those, between three and six are expected to become hurricanes and up to three will turn into major hurricanes.
Warning Preparedness Meteorologist Bob Robichaud says one of the biggest factors impacting the season will be the presence of El Nino.
He explains that will result in more wind shear, which tends to result in fewer hurricanes.
Bob Robichaud (VOCM News)
All of that said, Robichaud acknowledges that doesn’t necessarily mean significant hurricanes won’t make it into our neck of the woods.
He says wind shear is not constant. It ebbs and flows, so a storm could form during a time when it is low and make its way to Atlantic Canada.
Robichaud says there is an example of that happening before.
He says Hurricane Gustav in 2002 made landfall in Cape Breton. While it wasn’t a particularly powerful storm, he says it is an example of how a hurricane can still have an impact on land in El Nino conditions.
