Forecasters are predicting an average hurricane season in the Atlantic in terms of numbers, but nobody knows how powerful the storms will be. That’s because competing forces—El Nino in the Pacific and the temperature of Atlantic waters—each plays a role in determining strength.

Hurricane Centre meteorologist Bob Robichaud says El Nino tends to calm storms in the Atlantic while warm ocean water is fuel.

Which one actually turns out to be the dominant one remains to be seen. There will be 12 to 17 named storms in the Atlantic of which five to nine would reach hurricane status with one to four making it to major hurricane status,” says Robichaud.

Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends November 30.

The bulk of the storms occur in August, September and October. The first one of the season will be named Arlene, the second one Brett and the third Cindy.

Hurricane Fiona unleashed its forces on PEI, Nova Scotia and the southwest coast of Newfoundland last September, causing untold damage.